UWA Handbook 2017

Unit details

GENG5804 Decision Making Under Risk

Credit 6 points
  Offering
(see Timetable)
AvailabilityLocationMode
Not available in 2017UWA (Perth)Face to face
Content This unit provides students with a solid understanding of the quantitative techniques and methods used in the oil and gas industry for decision making under conditions of risk and uncertainty. The unit focuses on practical techniques in real-life petroleum industry situations. Using industry case studies, the unit covers applications of risk analysis in the oil and gas industry; basic probability and statistics concepts; risk-taking managers; methods for information gathering; decision theory; decision tree analysis; utility theory and Bayesian methods; value of information (perfect and imperfect); deterministic and stochastic models (Monte Carlo simulation); portfolio management models and applications; basic real options analysis concepts; expected value concept; influence diagrams; prospect evaluation decisions; and oil and gas reserves booking guidelines.
Outcomes Students are able to (1) understand the key elements of the typical decision-making process; (2) analyse complex industry scenarios, distinguish between the various types of decisions involved and decide on the appropriate tool for each type; (3) understand Decision Tree Theory and the Monte Carlo simulation techniques; and (4) draw insights and extract relevant conclusions for management from their decision models and apply the acquired skills to all aspects of petroleum exploration and production as well as business planning and corporate processes.
Assessment Typically this unit is assessed in the following ways: (1) assignments; (2) a case study; and (3) a final examination. Further information is available in the unit outline.

Supplementary assessment is not available in this unit.
Unit Coordinator(s) Dr Brendan Graham

  • The availability of units in Semester 1, 2, etc. was correct at the time of publication but may be subject to change.
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